Ahead Of The Curve
May 29, 2023 Happy Memorial Day.
Trading is neutral with a bias to the downside based upon wave analysis of Friday’s overlapping rally. Elevated volatility should come down. There is the looming bank crisis, but all the shoes might have dropped. Do not let the media hype get to your emotions.
Friday 5/28/2023
With the moon in Leo, and ahead of long Memorial Day Weekend, stocks opened higher and continued higher to close near the highs of the day, up 54.17 or 1.30%. The morning high was reached at 7:40, at 4202 and consolidated trading until 11:10. The SPX reached the day’s high of 4212 at 12:10.
Week Ending 3/24/2023
Friday 3/24/2023
After a long Friday morning consolidation, the market rallies off 8:15 PST lows to rally up. The overlapping waves up suggest a corrective rally that ends up in the middle of the post FOMC range.
Thursday 3/23/2023
The market reverses Wednesday’s exaggerated close and retraces a large part of it before decidedly selling off. Yellen’s statements saves the close by providing a double whiplash close.
Wednesday 3/22/2023
With little price movement, option premiums remained high until the rate announcement. They whip the market up and down to clean out stops. A head fake up before a slalom zig-zag down to close at the day’s lows.
Tuesday 3/21/2023
On this Tuesday before an FOMC rate decision, overnight trading provides a gap up with a follow up to reach highs and set the range for the remainder of the morning. Lows were set at 9:00 PST and drift upward for 38 points during the afternoon.
Monday 3/20/2023
Iron Condor fans rejoice on this Monday before the FOMC meeting. The opening rally that brings the SPX from 3917 to 3956 at 8:30 provides the day’s range for a quiet day.
Week Ending 3/17/2023
Friday 3/17/2023
Friday’s open provides no upside follow through as sellers come in and push the SPX down 60 points to 3900 at 8:45 AM PST. The rest of the day is range-bound 3900-3932.
Thursday 3/16/2023
The opening trade is flat, but by 7:40 the SPX marches up 120 points and is un-phased by Lagarde’s .50% rate hike until 10:05 AM PST before stalling out. A consortium of banks comes to First Republic Bank’s rescue.
Wednesday 3/15/2023
More fears over bank runs create an opening gap down. The market trades in a range and bottoms at 10:00. The index rallies and retraces to the golden 618 ratio.
Tuesday 3/14/2023
Overnight trading provides a gap up with a follow up to reach highs at 8:30. The market back-tracks and retraces 80% of the morning rally. A power hour rally to end near the day’s highs.
Monday 3/13/2023
Exhaustion gap followed by a 20 point dip to bottom at 6:42 at 3808. A zig-zag rally to the days high at 9:00 at 3903, a=c. b. The rally is retraced by 50% by the end of the day.
Week Ending 3/10/2023
Friday 3/10/2023
Morning lows at 6:48 AM PST, topping out at 8:34. A 90 point drop until 10:52 to 3448. The closing hours of the week were range-bound.
Thursday 3/9/2023
Morning opening gap is meet with fierce selling that doesn’t stop. The SPX and all major averages closed below their 200 day moving average. The trend is clearly down.
Wednesday 3/8/2023
Sideways action all day as the Powell repeats his message to Congress.
Tuesday 3/7/2023
The market opened flat in front of Powell’s Senate Testimony. The market spiked down right before he starts and wind its way down.
Monday 3/6/2023
Morning rally topped out at 7:42, around 4978, within the expected move of +/-25. It back-tracked for the rest of the day to close up 2.78 or .07%. Perfect day for condors.
Week Ending 3/3/2023
Friday 3/3/2023
The overnight futures traded with continued strength to provide an opening gap. Trading went sideways between 7:20 – 8:45 before trending higher for the remainder of the day. The SPX closed at 4045.64, up 54.20 or 1.61% for a 2 standard deviation mark up. The estimated move at the beginning of the day was +/- 28.
Thursday 3/2/2023
The SPX opened with an exhaustion gap down but meandered upward till 8:00 to trade in a morning range. A sudden 45 point rally was sparked at 10:35 when Fed Member Raphael Bostic said that it might possible to stop raising interest rates by Summer.
Wednesday 3/1/2023
The SPX traded with downside follow through from the previous session to bottom at 3940 at 8:15 AM PST. Trading for the rest of the day was range-bound with an upside test to the opening highs.
Tuesday 2/28/2023
Sideways opening action in the morning with a drift up to 4000 at 10:00 AM. The rest of the day is a solid downtrend.
Monday 2/27/2023
The morning push up to 4015 a 7:05 PST didn’t hold to complete a minute a-b-c down from last Friday’s session.
Week Ending 2/24/2023
2/24/2023
Markets opened lower on PPI numbers but found footing at 7:55 PST. Range bound trading for the rest of the day.
2/23/2023
Opens above previous days high and head fakes higher just to get body slammed to yet new lows for the run in a series of 4’s and 5’s. The bottom sets in around noon and continues back up near session highs. An outside day where the highs and lows are greater than the previous day. A break out usually indicates a run.
2/22/2023
A flat open with the morning lows struck at 7:35 PST. The market drifts upward ahead of the release of the Fed Minutes. Markets top out at 11:05 after the release and slide into new lows for this current swing.
2/21/2023
The week opens with a downside gap, and continued its relentlessly drip lower the whole day. Both RSI and MACD indicators were throwing off bullish divergence on the 5 minute chart only to close at the lows of the day off 81.75 or 2.00%. I believe this is the biggest slide this year.
Watch out for the Fed Minutes on Wednesday.
Week Ending 2/17/2023
2/17/2023
Downside gap following through from yesterday’s close into the morning lows at 9:55 EST. Prices drifted up for the rest of the day preceding Presidents Day finishing up near the highs of the day to fill part of the opening gap.
2/16/2023
Whipsaw city. The SPX makes the morning low within minutes of the open and rallies back up to close most of the gap by 1:00 PM EST. At 2:30, it starts a relentless dive to close at the days lows, just under the morning low. This is why you close any short verticals at .10 and not try to settle at the close.
2/15/2023
Another head fake from the Retail Sales number, the markets opened down and heads a little lower. The rest of the day appears to be tracing out a rising wedge to gain 11.47 or up .28%. Let’s see if it could break 4150 tomorrow.
2/14/2023
After the Labor Department released its CPI numbers, the markets opened down and whipsawed up and down most of the morning. First they take out the longs, then they take out the shorts. The best thing to do is step aside and watch the algos knock each other out. The S&P ends down 1.16 or .03% after all is said and done.
2/13/2023
It was a one way trend today with SPX rallying ahead of Tuesday CPI numbers, closing at the day’s highs. Up 40.83, 1.14%.
Week Ending 2/10/2023
2/10/2023
The wave (3) bottom provided sideways trading for Friday. The day ended at the top of the range possibly ending wave (4). Wave (5) bottom is expected for Monday trading.
2/9/2023
An opening gap up and then an ensuing downtrend the whole day to finish near the lows. Expecting a short term bottom for Friday trading.
2/8/2023
An opening gap down followed by downward trend in the morning. The afternoon traded sideways and ended near the lows. An inside day, trading remained within the whipsaw following Powell’s interview.
2/7/2023
Powell states that this process will last into next year. Markets whipsaw up, then down, but manage to close at the highs.